I think when they show the captain's face in the scenario above, (which is terrific, you should be a writer on the show) the more likely candidate would be Penny's father, Charles Widmore. It is Charles Widmore who is helming the mission... his daughter Penelope at odds with his aims. He wants the Island; she wants her lover back.

Likely?

Bravo. Wise as always. I too reverse engineered the previous two openers and came to a similar conclusion, except for a twist toward the end. Check it:

Episode starts on Naomi's ship. We are introduced to a few new characters (another Lost tradition - introducing new characters early in a season. Tailies in Season 2, Others in Season 3). We see Jack's call come in. We spend the rest of the episode cutting back and forth between the Losties waiting for rescue and the boat getting ready to chopper in - lots of suspense since everything seems to be safe on the ship but we're worried. At the end, the first wave of rescuees will make it to the ship - let's say Kate, Hurley and Sayid. Then there is an intercepted transmission from The Others. Turns out Ben wasn't saying these people rescuing them were going to be violent. Rather, he is planning to stage another 'cleansing' now that outsiders have found the island. Now they must go back to warn the remaining survivors on the island and figure out how to stop him.

Another fun option that I'm almost sure won't happen but would be awesome:

We open on a man in the hold of a boat. The boat and the man are from another time. Suddenly the boat runs against something and the man is thrown aside. We see that it is Richard circa 1800s. Cut to a newer and functional Black Rock having just run aground on the island. Then we watch Richard and the island through flashbacks up to the present ala The Other 48 Days with intercut scenes from present day island with scenes from the past with '100 years ago', '50 years ago' titles at the bottom, all leading up to the current day.

Lastly, let's stay on track with predictions, not enumerating plot holes and flaws. That isn't nearly as fun.

Where does Season 4 begin?

- To answer this question, we need to look at the Season 2 and Season 3 openers, and where they began.

- Season 2 opened with "Play Your Own Kind of Music," the first appearance of Desmond going about his routine in the new locale of the Hatch and typing in the numbers, and then the explosion of the hatch (something we had already seen happen at the end of Season 1, but from Locke/Jack/Hurley/Kate's perspective).

- Season 3 opened with "Downtown" and the first appearance of Juliet, preparing the new locale of her house for the bookclub meeting, during which we got hints of the rift between Ben and Juliet. We then saw the crash of the plane, something we finally saw (from the island's/Desmond's perspective) in the final episode of Season 2.

- That means the opening to Season 4 will (or should) feature: 1) a song, preferably old, 2) the introduction of a new character who will prove pivotal on the show, 3) a new locale (one that seems utterly normal but in actuality is creepy, a la the Hatch or the island village), 4) an ordinary activity that becomes mysterious (Desmond's morning routine, Juliet's prep for book club meeting), and finally 5) the "re-telling" of a pivotal event from the end of the previous season from a different perspective.

- So, of the theories I posted above, I really think the opening of Season 4 will be upon Naomi's ship, and probably in the "captain's" office/room. He'll be seen (his body, that is, not his face) pouring himself a whiskey (maybe the same brand that Mr. Widmore prefers?), and then putting on a CD on his office stereo (any guesses as to the artist? I'll vote for Karen Carpenter, just to keep the streak of female singers of the past that would maybe have a song that sounds vaguely creepy....Billie Holiday could work too). He'll sit down at his desk and begin reading a book or writing in a journal. He will perhaps light a cigarette. As the song goes out of a crescendo into a silent part, it is interrupted by a shrill ring of a phone. The pen stops/the book is dropped. The man leaps from his chair, and picks up a satelite phone. He speaks the half of the conversation that we heard from Jack.

As the conversation ends (the part we've seen), the man opens the door out from his office - we're on the brig of a huge ocean liner in the midst of icebergs (a la the end of Season 2). The finger on the phone presses the "mute" button. We see the "first mate" say "Captain? What are your orders?" The camera pans back and we see the Captain's face....

Marvin Candle.

He says "We have them. Fully arm your squad. No survivors."

Cue creepy wail and Lost title.

(What do you think? The only problem with this theory is that Marvin Candle is NOT a new character....but he is someone we know almost nothing about. Do I at least have the key "common elements" of Lost season openers covered?)

Sending is another matter, particularly if the battery is low: the only way an outside transmission would interfere is if it were on the same frequency with greater amplitude and being broadcast omnidirectionally, which I suppose is the case (supposedly) in the story.

Other Minor hole: Radio wave transmissions, like the one running for 16 years, would not interfere with a satellite transceiver which depends on a simple line-of-sight up/down link.

A tether? Please. The station was shown firmly mounted to the sea floor like an oil rig. IMHO, and no offense, but it doesn't take an engineering degree (or a kindergarten graduation, for that matter) for the viewer to realize that 1) holding a station that big with a cable that small would be like suspending a car with a human hair and 2) people pick the cable up all the time, flexing it more than a meter, indicating there is no tension on it. It is definitely a power cable of some kind. Granted, it may be a defunct cable left over from the construction of the station, but I'm not one of the writers.