Stephen Colbert, President of the Twentysomethings
Maybe he really does have something to laugh about: according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports, in a three-way presidential race with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, Stephen Colbert would pull 13% of the vote. (Hat tip to my friends-I've-never-met at fellow TIME blog Real Clear Politics, who pointed to this the other day, but I'm not sure our audiences overlap much.)
Like many polls at this early stage, this one is fascinating and probably meaningless. For starters, and it's easier to "vote" for a third-party candidate in theory a year before the election is actually held. And this poll follows polling that showed Colbert drawing a much smaller percentage of primary voters nationally. Finally, one would assume that for some respondents, Colbert was serving as a de facto "none of the above" or protest vote. To see how well he's drawing as Stephen Colbert, one would want to see some comparisons with other hypothetical third-party candidates: Mike Bloomberg, Ralph Nader, a sweet potato, etc.
On the other hand, says Rasmussen, Colbert drew more support than Jon Stewart did in an earlier poll, at 8%. Also, 13% for a fake person: damn. And finally, in said hypothetical matchup, among voters aged 18 to 29, Colbert pulled 28%--and 31% when matched up with Clinton and Fred Thompson.
In both scenarios, Rasmussen says, Colbert had more support among this age group than the Republican candidate. Whatever turnout ends up being among young voters, this can't be happy news for Republicans. Instead of running Law & Order's Fred Thompson, maybe they should be drafting Ben Stein, to go after the Comedy Central vote.
Of course, the most interesting-but-likely-meaningless aspect of this poll is that it's all predicated on Colbert's actually continuing his campaign, or "campaign," into the general election. Which, if I had to bet, I'd bet against. I've talked to Colbert a grand total of once, in an interview for this feature in 2005, but I got the impression there was a fairly earnest guy under the persona, probably not a guy who seriously would want to play spoiler in a presidential race (as fun as that would make my 2008). I suspect that's one reason, besides practical logistics, that he's limited his primary campaign to his home state of South Carolina.
But who knows? If I somebody woke me up and told me I was pulling double digits in the presidential election, I might suddenly be inclined to make more than just fake news.
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1
Hey, I'd vote for you! Where do I send my $3.47 couch coins contribution?
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2
I'd like to see the results of Colbert v. Obama, because if there is one person the college generation is set on supporting, it is Obama ... no matter how much we love Stephen T. Colbert.
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3
Let it be so. Let it be so!!!!
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4
I've gone to see Spinal Tap a couple of times. It's fun to play along, to enjoy the smug satisfaction of being "in" on the joke.
This Colbert experience seems to be the same sort of thing, but gosh.... He lost me completely about 4 or 5 ironic left turns ago.
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5
To a lot of us "Hil v Rudy" would be a joke.... adding Colbert to the ballot would just make it official.
My guess is that Colbert's high poll numbers are based primarily on the fact that Hillary is the only Democrat polled. In generic presidential polling, the Dems beat by GOP by about 10%... but in head to head polling, Hillary is neck and neck with most candidates.
In other words, voters want to vote for a Democratic candidate, but Hillary's high negatives forced voters into the "none of the above" category represented by Colbert.
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6
There's a facebook group (created shortly after Colbert announced running, I believe) called '1,000,000 Strong For Stephen T Colbert.' Membership is closing in on 900,000 (little more than 7 days after it was created).
By comparison, the similar group for Obama is sitting around 380,000 after 9 months, and it has taken the "Stop Hillary Clinton: (One Million Strong AGAINST Hillary)" more than 8 months to get over 488,000 members.
Not necessarily all over 18 (maybe not even half), but food for thought.
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7
In my opinion, I think Colbert would take a significant number of votes away from a candidate...likely the Democratic candidate... cause c'mon, Colber is no real conservative.
I'm not sure who's ahead in the polls for Republicans, but lets say it's Republican X, Hilary, and Colbert. I feel like Republicans would be more likely to seriously vote for their candidate, while Dems might 'waste' their vote on Colbert in the grand hope that he might actually win.
Then what? I myself and a college student, and honestly I don't trust my peers. Heck, I don't trust myself.
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8
Stephen Colbert is not the Brewster's Millions candidate for 2008.
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9
Whatever turnout ends up being among young voters, this can't be happy news for Republicans. Instead of running Law & Order's Fred Thompson, maybe they should be drafting Ben Stein, to go after the Comedy Central vote.
If Republican's drafted Ben Stein, they'd be going after the current VH1 vote. Or the late 90s Comedy Central vote. Same thing, really.
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10
Colbert is amazing. But doesn't this seem a little too much like 2007's "Man of the Year" starring Robin Williams?
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