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Strike Watch: Viewers, Schmiewers. Will the Advertisers Come Back?

Conan O'Brien and the Red Sox's David Ortiz, both of whom have some spare time on their hands now. NBC Photo: Meghan Sinclair
Even as this post goes up, TV writers should be beginning to picket Rockefeller Plaza in Manhattan, within convenient walking distance of a zillion TV-news camera crews. As I've mentioned before, it will take a while for the strike to affect some of TV's most popular shows. But the strike may do its biggest, most long-lasting damage early.
Here's how. What shows will go off the air first? Late-night shows like The Daily Show, Colbert and Conan. Who watches The Daily Show, Colbert and Conan? Statistically, a lot of younger viewers. Which viewers are the most fickle and most likely to abandon TV for other entertainment? The same ones to whom, starting tonight, TV issues an open invitation to stampede for the exits.
Now, they may all come back once the strike ends. (And they may not leave late-night TV altogether; there's always Adult Swim.) But that's not TV's big problem. The big problem is the advertisers trying to reach them.
As a report on public radio's Marketplace this morning noted, advertisers in late-night TV will immediately have to look other places to sell their wares. If they're trying to reach young people, that probably means more ad money going to online and other alternative ad placements. If you've followed the TV business at all these past few years, you know that what really makes TV execs wake up in a cold sweat is persuading advertisers--again, especially those target viewers under 35--that they still need TV at all.
And now the advertisers have a chance to test that out. If they find they can sell videogames and trendy malt beverages elsewhere, they may not all come back even if the viewers do.
I know we have Tuned Inlanders in the ad business, so I'm curious to hear from them. But as for the rest of you, what do you plan to do with your free time while The Daily Show and Colbert are in reruns? Please don't tell me you're going to waste it on sleep.
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1
I have the feeling that at least some of the "late night" players will come up with unscripted entertainment fare. For instance, Comedy Central could redo 'Tough Crowd', getting rid of the monologue, and just letting a bunch of comedians riff on the news (with Stewart as host?).
And I can also see one of the broadcast networks doing an unscripted 'variety'/interview show in late night -- rather than an opening monologue, there would be a musical act, followed by an interview with someone promoting something, then a stand-up routine, and another interview -- or something along the lines of the old David Susskind show, or Irv Kupcinet show, with celebrities/public figures sitting around talking about about stuff.
What I don't see is the networks doing nothing in late night with original unscripted live programming... as you note, they are too afraid of losing their advertisers.
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A question. Why doesn't WGA smarten up, and do what the UAW does... target one or two companies for a strike while the rest of the membership continues to work (and support the strikers with a surcharge on dues). The targetted companies are far more likely to settle on terms most favorable to the WGA, at which point that contract becomes the benchmark for other companies... -
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Question about the writer's strike. Will this affect PBS shows like Nature, Nova, etc?
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@p_luk: Not that I'm an expert on the automotive industry, but isn't the key difference that the UAW actually has separate contracts with each automaker? Were it even possible to contract separately with individual studios, I wonder if the WGA would feel they were giving up too much leverage.
On the programming, if there's a protracted strike, which seems all too likely, I also suspect we'll see some sort of writer-free latenight experiments eventually.
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4
Man oh man would it be great if the strike meant an uptick in live music on tv.
Was watching DVDs of the Johnny Cash show. Who puts that much live music on TV any more? Austin City Limits and what else?
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5
While Colbert and Stewart are off the air, I'll be goofing off on the internet. When they come back, I'll watch them loyally the same as before. The advertisers shouldn't worry so much about the strike though. My husband and I don't watch any of the commercials, ever, because we tape the shows ahead of time and fast forward through the commercials. In fact, we often wait to watch shows until 15 minutes after the show has started so we can fast forward through the commercials.
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6
Just another nail in the networks' coffin. The writers are shooting themselves in the foot with this strike - if the strike is more than a month or so, viewership numbers, already sliding, will plummet and never recover. Good riddance. Maybe this will fuel some decent alternative productions - I'd love to see the first iTunes-only shows start coming out.
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Is Adult Swim non-union? Or are you suggesting that their viewers are just accustomed to non-stop reruns and wouldn't notice a work stoppage?
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@Glenn: (1) Adult Swim does mix in a alot of reruns with original programming; (2) animation has production schedules that usually require episodes to be done much further in advance.
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Maybe this is a stupid question, but why can't Jon Stewart just write his own 4 minute intro and 5 minute interview with one of his correspndents? Then he could do an extra long guest interview, which doesn't require writers. I know he doesn't like to get up before noon, but I'm pretty sure he could get it done in a full day's work.
p.s. How many writers does it take to write Letterman's top ten list? I'll do it for a buck an item.
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To me, most TV is just fast-food for the brain anyway. Hopefully this will get people reading more and smarten them up.
I wonder, will this affect broadcast news? It'd be a shame for Brian Williams to not be able to tell us how much nothing our government is getting done.
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to Ian:
mainly - i would think anyways - its because they are showing their support for the writers. Though, yes, they could theoretically write their own stuff all by themselves with no writers, its a vote of solidarity to allow yourself to go into reruns.
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not to mention that Jon Stewart, Conan, etc are members of WGA
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13
I have an ad agency. I write TV spots and have media people who place them for us. And we're scrambling right now to see what the possibilities are. But it's still too soon to know what's about to happen. For example, I have one client that advertises solely on Hispanic TV. We're checking to see what's happening there. We have another client that advertises only on the cable networks such as HGTV, The Food Network, Fine Living, etc. It's a great way to reach upscale women since hardly anyone records this programming to watch later, while skipping past commercials. We're not sure what's going on there yet either.
And finally--a word to everyone who proudly (gleefully?) announces that they never watch commercials: What's your point? Are you trying to get us to stop sponsoring your favorite shows? Do you really want us to go away, and stop bothering you? Did you ever stop to think of what would happen if we actually did?
If you think the writers walking away would interrupt your TV viewing, imagine what would happen if we walked away.
Brian
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Does anyone remember the last TV writers strike in the late 80s? Letterman was still on NBC and when the writers left, the show quality dropped to a point where it was difficult to watch. This time around they could utilize the Internet, and have user submitted top ten lists and contests for jokes used on the air. T-shirts are cheap, and who wouldn't be proud of one that said, "Scab writer for Colbert"?
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Re: Letterman in '88
...where would we be but for the Hal Gurnee Network Time Killers?
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Brian, you make an excellent point. Without support from the advertisers, shows aren't going to stay on TV. In a way, it's like the RIAA's situation - this is an old, tired business model that has outlived its day, but both sides will milk every last cent out of it for as long as the cow can be kept alive - even if old Bessie is on life support.
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@p_luk: Not that I'm an expert on the automotive industry, but isn't the key difference that the UAW actually has separate contracts with each automaker?
theoretically, that shouldn't matter. The idea would be create a benchmark (like the UAW does) and then demand that everyone follow it.
What would matter, however, is that writers are generally not paid by networks, but by studions/production companies.
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"To me, most TV is just fast-food for the brain anyway. Hopefully this will get people reading more and smarten them up."
People who read are not smarter than people who look at TV. A book itself does not make a person smarter. Those who read are acually dumber than the general public who watch TV. Bookreaders have social skills and an inability to believe what they hear without asking a bunch of useless questions. TV keeps people submissive and passive. Books allow people to think and feel, but not how to act and how to communicate.
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19
I guess I'll have time to get back to that Netflix queue I've been ignoring.
It's kind of how I feel about the grocery workers strike, or professional sports strikes; strike if you must but I may not care about you as much when you return.
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20
I think I'm with the majority here (and on EW's board) - I'll spend more time goofing off on Teh Internets, and I'll start whittling down my rather extensive Netflix list. Netflix has been getting a free ride from me for a few weeks since the fall season started back up, I think it's time they earned their keep.
Also, if I wish to induce a stupor, there's always hours of HGTV, which I think imports a lot of programming from Canada, where there's no strike going on (right?).
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@Jane: reality programming is in any event not affected by the strike. But yes, you can also continue to watch the finest home renovations in all of Ontario on Divine Design.
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Were we just anointed with a designation? "Tuned Inlanders." Did you give any consideration to Tunedinians, or Poniewozikians? See that -- I could take over writing duties at a moment's notice and rescue television from the strike stalemate.
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23
Jon Stewart can't just come up with his own materical because he is a member of the writer's guild as well... he's on strike just like the rest of the staff.
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@ James: oh, Divine Design! How did you know what has filled up 50% of my DVR? "Candice renovates an urban loft"? I'm so there!
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