Media Measuring the Drapes?
God help me, I think I actually agree with Matt Drudge about something. In a banner headline this morning (since replaced) Drudge ran together the names of a bunch of news organizations (including TIME) and asked, "Can They All Be Wrong?" The question wasn't specific, but since it including pretty much everyone who's been polling the Presidential campaign, it seemed to refer to the increasingly voiced sentiment that the election is over and Barack Obama has won.
So can they all be wrong? Sure they can (which is not the same as saying they likely are). Of course, the press has access to a lot of polling data, at the national and state level, and clearly it says that Obama's ahead by most measures. Journalists and analysts wouldn't be doing their job if they didn't acknowledge that. But in the past week or so, it's gone well beyond that: we've seen New York magazine write about "Obama's next New Deal," we're seeing names floated for an Obama cabinet, and so on.
If John McCain ends up winning the election, he isn't going to know which headline to hold up for the cameras.
Is the culprit Obama bias? If it is, it's clumsily executed Obama bias, since I suspect that if anything, his campaign would prefer to damp down expectations so that (1) they can motivate turnout and discourage complacency and (2) should they win, they could avoid articles about how they failed to meet expectations and thus do not have a strong mandate.
The fact is, practically speaking, there's little advantage to having your support overstated in a general election (at least, no advantage that might not have equal and opposite repercussions). In a primary, at least, the perception that you are winning more handily than you are, that you are inevitable, can have the effect of moving superdelegates, getting opponents to drop out, or drying up your rivals' fundraising. But a general election is going to be held regardless.
A big part of what we're seeing here, I think, is the drive in the media to be first, to get ahead of the narrative. Get to the next next thing! If you wait until people actually, like, vote before you start talking Cabinet picks, someone else will beat you! (If you hedge too much while everyone else goes for the big prediction, you risk looking like you don't know what you're talking about.) Also, the last time we had a Presidential election that wasn't demonstrably tight going into the last week was 1996, when there was less to speculate about in a second Clinton term. So the political press may be a bit out of practice looking at this kind of race.
The facts are facts. National polls show Obama leading by great or narrower margins, and there hasn't been one (to my knowledge) to show any McCain lead in over a month. That said, elections are won in the Electoral College, and polls only indicate who would win an election if it were held today—which it's not. And as we've heard repeatedly, polls are premised in part on many things that we simply don't know, this year in particular: not just possible October surprises but turnout, how undecideds will break, whether the polls are actually sampling the right voters, and, yeah, the R word.
Sure, it's been a long campaign and the temptation to move on to the next thing is strong. And when you have Republican officials offering up quotes like "the cake is baked," it becomes even stronger. But we only have seven days to go. Let the people put it in the oven first.
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A lot can happen in a week. Obama is pretty obviously in the lead now, but handing him the win before the actual election is just overdramatic and possibly counterproductive. I generally distrust the role of polling in politics. There's the bandwagon effect, where weak-minded ninnies base their decisions on the current prevailing winds, but also potential issues with the sample population, with the wording of the questions, the reliability of responses (Bradley Effect?), the potential for the poll numbers to apathize (probably not a real word) or mobilize either side, etc. I majored in politics in college, and was left with the realization that there are a zillion and one ways to manipulate polls, and even more ways for poll results to manipulate the audience.
I do not doubt that Obama has developed a significant lead, and I am grateful to the universe that people are taking a careful, reasoned look at the two candidates and realizing that there shouldn't actually be any contest. But a lot can happen between now and then - after the months of passionate national debate and high drama we cannot afford to get complacent at the last minute.
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[...] jponiewozik | Comments (0) | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Email This So fine, smartass: If we're not supposed to declare the election over already, what are campaign journalists to spend their time doing over the next week? Well there's [...]
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They better be worng!
I'll admit, with every news cast we get a healty heaping of "Obama '08" with pom-poms and all! However, the change we need is not as simple as changing Parties, after all, the Democrats control Congress and the polls say they are only doing 1/2 the job that President Bush is!
Don't get me wrong, I don't think McCain is the best choice for President, however, Obama is by FAR the worst choice for President! Even his own running mate has told us over and over again that he is too dangerous for the country! When are you going to listen? After we invade Pakistan like he said he would do during the debates?
We Americans have to take responsibility and work through this hard time! We can't spend or tax our way out of it! We must elect McCain if we stand a chance at all of heading off a depression and further world conflict!
Come on, even you Democrats have to admit, there are far more qualified people in your Party than Obama. The one trait that got Obama his nomination was his RECORD of voting obedience to the Party. So for you who can't see what is happening, the Democratic Party is making a bid for the Oval Office, it's not just Obama. He will only be a puppet for the Democratic Party, doing their bidding.
Remember now, the Democratic Party has controlled Congress for the last 2 years and has an approval rating that is 1/2 of President Bush's! Just look what they've done to our country in those two short years! And that's fighting against an opposition Administration! Think what will happen to the country if these same chukleheads gain control of it all!
They will long for President Bush's approval ratings! And you and I will pay the price for decades to come! -
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I've been pondering this very topic a lot this week. I'm curious how Obama is going to use his infomercial tomorrow night. Will this be a perfect storm for McCain? Democrats who are more casual with their politics may elect to stay in (is there any bad weather expected in various battleground states?), while Republicans who are more casual with their politics may be more motivated to go out and vote.
Undecides/Independants may look more skeptically at Obama because he's such an apparent media darling (show me all the statistics about positive/negative/neutral you like, but regular visits to the front page of any major news outlet that doesn't rhyme with Roxnews definitely give the impression that he's a media darling). If they're feeling just a little critical of Obama, the Infomercial could blow up in his face with exactly the people he wants to win over. (Then again, if the Infomercial is anything like his commercials, he's just going to talk like a Republican for 30 minutes, but that's beside the point.)
Am I simply a conservative in my hope-and-a-prayer rationalization mode? Probably. I am genuinely worried for the country should Obama win. But if he wins, he'll be my president, and it's going to take more than a bunch of liberals in Washington to scare me off to Canada
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For the people who say that they are scared of a Democrat to take office because of the fear of what he might do to the country.. I wonder do you people look at how our country is now and WHO is and office.. a CONSERVATIVE..Republican ... and where is our country??? Our country is under water and go back to when bill Clinton was president a DEMOCRAT was our country like this... NO!!!! So you people get it together and vote OBAMA!
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Its so dangerous to crown Obama before the actual election. The polls have been favorable, but as Shara is saying, polls are not the same, nor as reliable as the actual result - although how reliable the result are can also be questioned, especially after the 2000 elections. My point is this, by crowning Obama before the actual election, it takes a bit of the urgency off of the upcoming elections. We already have problems with voter turnout, if its viewed that the election is already in the bag, then what's the encouragement to vote for people that would not normally be inclined to. We CANNOT have another eight years of reactionary, socially conservative, fiscally irresponsible, fearmongering, STUPID Republican policies.
This election is not over until it is over. To think that or say that is to invite disaster.
To all you Repubs on the comment page, a Wag of the Finger to you. Can you honestly say, the country is safer and more prosperous after these last eight years? Do I think Obama can change much if he gets two terms in office? No. But thats because your commander in chief really screwed us over. But thats okay, continue thinking that eight years of Bush is better than the alternative of Gore or Kerry.
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@ Shara Says
Did you need to create a new log-in and password in order to comment, post-blog explosion? Oh well, it was time. Yeswecan? would have been obsolete in about a week. Now that I think about, joethefinancier is going to be obsolete too.
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@joethe financier: obsolete? Delightful little rectangular, almond-flavored pastries will never go out of style!
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@joethefinancier: it let me keep my old name n password, but I had to re-register on the new system. I heard some folks saying that their old name wasn't available anymore, though.
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Dude, this new system just caught me accidentally double-posting and prevented it from happening! That was cool.
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"Delightful little rectangular, almond-flavored pastries" is exactly how I would describe myself.
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averageamerican1:
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The Dems don't control Congress completely. It's very close with the Republicans, with Joe Lieberman holding a "swing" vote, so to speak. As the two parties wrestle for control, we get gridlock.
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Joe Biden has not said "over and over" that Obama is "dangerous." Where did you get this? In the primaries Biden did question Obama's readiness. He says now that he believes Obama is, in fact, ready.
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Obama said nothing about invading Pakistan, quote-unquote. In fact, what he said about going after bin Laden, if Pakistan isn't able or willing to do so, is exactly the same thing Bush has been saying.
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Can't spend or tax our way out of this? Isn't this sort of what we did with the Great Depression? Tax cuts do not equal jobs. We've had lots of tax cuts and rebates over the past eight years, and job growth has stagnated, as have job earnings.
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Obama won the nomination based on his intelligence, his decision-making, his record, and his oratory, not to mention his outstanding political skills. He beat Hillary Clinton. Enough said. I don't see him as anyone's puppet.
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No one would ever long for Bush's approval ratings. -
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Hey, I'm really digging 'Shakespeare in GA's' formatting--easy read.
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[...] fine, smartass: If we’re not supposed to declare the election over already, what are campaign journalists to spend their time doing over the next week? Well [...]
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[...] fine, smartass: If we’re not supposed to declare the election over already, what are campaign journalists to spend their time doing over the next week? Well [...]
- poniewozik Loved the season. Mrs Tuned In wd have put u on the main list RT @boredtodeath Thank u for incl us in Time's Top 10. We'll take hon mention. - 4 hours ago
- poniewozik @carr2n Virgin is the best, LAX-JFK - 4 hours ago
- poniewozik Did NPR interview abt multiscreen multitasking. After, automatically reached for iPhone in pocket. Like don draper wd have for cigarettes. - 6 hours ago
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