Happy Lost Day! We Begin Bombing in...

I read an article that said after tonight's finale, we won't know how it could possibly return for another season. So I can only imagine that the three-hour of television will go something like this: Previously on Lost, Whoa, Boom, Tears.

My very probably wrong guesses:
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1) In 1977, the Losties will reunite in Sawyer & team trying to stop Jack, Sayid & young-Hawking from exploding the bomb. Radzinsky (the jerk) will come across them, killing someone, the bomb will explode causing the incident, and everyone will be shuttled to the present.
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2) On-Island in 2007, Locke will try to kill Jacob - in order to free him. Ben and Richard try to stop him, and it will be revealed that Locke 2.0 is Christian-esque (whatever *that* means). Meanwhile, the Shadow of the Statue people (SotS) will have captured Rose, Bernard and Vincent - because they need to be back - and are trying to kill the Others.
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3) Off-Island in 2007, Widmore convinces Hawking that his methods are "right" and the Island needs saving from the SotS, and they convince Desmond that he has unfinished business on the Island.
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4) At the very end of the episode, ALL the players meet up on the Island in 2007, something shocking happens, then smash-cut to LOST screen.

Given that this is (apparently) JJ Abrams' parallel dimension week (Star Trek, Fringe), I am going to say that the answer to "Did they change the past or did they always cause the Incident?" is:
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Yes.
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Reverse Occam's Razor says that the most complicated answer on this show is usually the right one, and thus:
Jack succeeds in detonating Jughead. And the Losties are thrown back into 2007 (or 2010, probably, to account for actor aging).
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Except it isn't their 2010, it is the 2010 timeline where the Losties never went back into the past, where The Hostiles & Dharma are still in an uneasy truce, where 815 successfully landed and all the Losties are now truly lost: the other thems all got off that plane, and now our Losties have nowhere to go in the world.
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So I'd expect a couple dead/missing characters to be back in this alternate timeline next year, even if only for one episode - Walt is probably a member of the DI working on his psychic abilities, original Sawyer is still conning people, etc.
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As far as Jacob goes, I will go with the "free him" option - Locke needs to kill Jacbo's corporeal form to free him (or so Jacob can make the jump into the new timeline).

Sigh... I just re-read James' post and realized we were supposed to predict the cliff-hanger, not the episode's content.
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Locke arrives at Jacob's cabin and goes inside. Then we don't see what happens with that storyline until the 77'ers arrive back in the present and stumble across the cabin. The Others who had come with Locke are gone. Jack opens the door, and it's Locke who's sitting in Jacob's chair. ie, Locke becomes Jacob.

Hey somebody clear this up for me. How many hours of show do we get tonite? I keep hearing about 2-hour finale "event", and "event" often means a clip episode followed by a real one. But I've also heard that there would be 3 hours of Lost stuff, so I dunno. What time does the actual show stuff start here in Eastern Standard Time?

@Tom - I disagree with the Reverse Occam's Razor rationale. The most complicated answer would include multiple intersecting dimensions, bizarro-world characters, the circus, fire, clowns, and many, many goats. I think Occam's Razor still applies to Lost, but we have to consider the Lost Occam's Razor to be bound by the rules the show has in place (time travel exists, WHH, etc.). So the DI and the Others and all those crazy factors made us think that Occam's Razor worked in reverse for Lost, but really, the solutions that the show worked out were the simplest in the bounds of the show.
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That being said, I think they're going to fail in detonating the H-bomb (I know Jack's a doctor, but really... how do you detonate an H-bomb? Hit it on the nose with a really, really big hammer?), then Incident Energy is going to be released, and Our Heroes are going to be flung to the present. There's going to be confusion and chaos (and probably gunfire), so Richard is going to assume they're all dead.
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I think the big twist is going to involve the SotS folks, the Black Rock, and Smokey.
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My gut is telling me (and we all know how accurate my gut is!) that the big twist is going to be something that makes it look like WHH is false, but uncertain enough that the fans who would get angry at that (*raises hand*) would have to watch the premiere. I just have this looming feeling that the season finale is going to leave me angry and threatening to not watch season 6. If my buddy Dave ever starts posting here, he'd be the first to confirm that I tend to make knee-jerk reactions like that pretty regularly.

@shara - per abc.com, the "finale event" starts at 8/7c. The schedule shows Lost from 8/7c to 9/8c and then Lost again from 9/8c to 11/10c. It looks like the clip show is an hour and first, then the finale itself comes second and is two hours.

@Sharasays - there's one of those recaps at 8, then a 2-hour episode at 9
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@Dave - don't forget Sayid considerable skills with electronics. If he can transmogrify a radio to emit a signal, he can set off Jughead.
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Tom's comment about JJ raises a question that maybe I've just been dense about. What exactly is his involvement with the show? I know he's execprod, but I've read/heard conflicting things about his contributions to writing, story arc-ing, etc.

Ugh I hope they don't do any of the alternate timeline stuff. Maybe they could handle it well and I'd dig it, but I REALLY don't want that to be what happens. I want What Happened to Have Happened... I seriously don't think that they will to that route - I think the Dharma Losties will disappear in the explosion, Richard will think he saw them die. They will be zapped back to the present and wake up in the jungle to deal with the threat of the SoS folks. After that, I'll back up Matt's prediction that they show up at Jacob's cabin and find Locke in the chair.

@Matt - thanks so much

@Dave - thanks so much

@Matt - everything I've heard about JJ is that he's totally hands off, and has been since early season 1. I'm not sure what role he played in the greater storyline of the show.

My prediction is that at the very end of the episode, the incident will occur. After a bright flash and maybe a purple sky as in the season 2 finale, the '77 losties come to in a undetermined location, and the season ends with Hurley repeating Charlie's line from the pilot, "Guys, where are we."

I'm a full-on believer in Doc Jensen's "the show mirrors itself" theory.
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Season 1: A survival season. Survival on a slightly weird island, interesting ties between characters. Ends with the Others taking Walt and blowing up the raft, and Jack and Locke looking into the Hatch. Locke is man of faith, Jack is man of science. Season 1 will mirror Season 6.
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Season 2: Inside the Hatch, and meeting the Others. Season ends with Desmond turning the key, the Hatch exploding, people off-island detecting the anomaly, and Jack/Sawyer/Kate getting kidnapped by the Others with Michael and Walt leaving. Locke LOSES his faith (causing the Hatch to explode by not pressing the button) and is proven wrong; Jack is still man of science, but his science is proven wrong (both when the Hatch explodes -- he thought it was an experiment, and when his plan to follow Michael knowing full-well that a betrayal is coming backfires). Season 2 mirrors Season 5.
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Season 3: Inside the Others, and background on Dharma Initiative. Season ends with Losties killing Others, Jack saying "We have to go back," John kills Naomi and wants Jack to stay, and the call to the freighter to be rescued. Locke is maniacal in his faith to his destiny to join/lead the Others and to follow the Island; Jack is maniacal in his scientific goal to get everyone off the island. Season 3 mirrors Season 4.
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Season 4: The freighter folk, Oceanic 6 and their off-island lives, and the story of how people got off. Season ends with island disappearing, Oceanic 6 getting rescued and lying about it, Ben turns the wheel. Locke still maniacal in his faith; Jack still maniacal in science/rescue. Mirrors Season 3.
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Season 5: the Dharma Initiative, and the island post-815 departure, with the Ajira landing. Season ends....? Jack, though, is now a man of faith in the idea that he can change the past/future. Locke is now a man of science in that he is trying to kill a deity.
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Season 6: ???
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Putting it all together, I'd say at the end of tonight's episode, both Jack and Locke are proven wrong (per Season 2): Jack cannot explode the bomb, Locke cannot kill Jacob. The Incident still happens, but in the process returns the Dharma-era Losties to 2007 (remember the Hatch had time-effects on Desmond, so it stands to reason it has the same effects on the Losties). Locke cannot kill Jacob, but instead is betrayed by Ben/Alpert (a la Jack getting betrayed by Michael), and instead "resurrects" Jacob into a corporeal form (and may even find, to his own surprise, that HE is Jacob). Battlelines are drawn between the SotS and the Others. And what is the battle for?
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Aaron. Him in the woods (with Bernard and Rose and Vincent) is the last thing we see.

What Dave said: about midway through season one he apparently dropped all active participation on the show to work on M:I 3, and then, Star Trek.
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"Darlton" occasionally mention that JJ still signs off on plot outlines, but I believe that to be simple lip service, and his participation is limited to occasional lunch dates with Lindelof.

@Chad - I too really like Jensen's mirror theory, and if that's the case, in tonight's episode there's going to be a character who sacrifices himself to save the rest (Desmond turning the key). From a purely story standpoint, I think the best candidate would be Sawyer, considering how much he's grown as a person, etc, etc. But like with Desmond 3 years ago, he's not actually gonna die. 'Cause there'd be such an uproar if Sawyer died. Oh lordy.
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And also like season 2, I think Desmond is going to come back in a BIG way tonight.

@ Dave & Tom - Thanks for clearing that up

Here's my insane prediction for the cliff-hanger:
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While in 1977, Jack has a hammer and is ready to hit the detonator pin on the bomb (because obviously, its that easy to set off a nuke). While Sayid, Alpert, Hawking, and Razinky and a few other DI folk look on. Razinky threatening to shoot Jack.
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Meanwhile, scene change to in 2007, John has a gun and is pointing it at Jacob's head in hostage form, while Ben, Alpert, and Sun look on in horror. When all of a sudden Vincent comes running in.
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Scene change back to 1977, Vincent comes running into our friends with the nuke. (I know, that dog is amazing!) All of a sudden, Vincent goes into a pounce crouch and starts growling. At the same time we go into split screen of Vincent in both 1977 and 2007, then further split screen ala 24 to show Vincent in two corners with Jack and John in the other corners. The clock starts ticking in 24 fashion...
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Vincent in both times lets out a bark of tremendous power sending a sonic pulse throughout the island disrupting the time continuum causing our 1977 lostaways into time spinning vortex. While the DI folk and hostiles go into a blank stare losing their memory for 2 minutes.
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The others in 2007 meanwhile all get a similar blank stare losing their memory for 2 minutes as well. Screen goes black for a second as the pulse wave travels, then the picture comes back in zoomed in on the eye of a woman. BAUM! Lost logo appears. Cliff hanger, we see the eye woman who is actually the mother on HIMYM.
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See, this allows the spin offs to start with Flash Foward, reminding people of the season finales of 24 and HIMYM. This was all agreed upon as one of the requirements from the new writer's contract following the strike last year.

Seriously though, they've got a finale and one more season to go to tell me what happened to that dog. I'll be very disappointed if they don't.

@yogi - that was pretty hilarious. I also want to know what's going on with Vincent, and I'm confident they'll let us know.

I predict that Jack will be sitting on the bomb and wave a cowboy hat in the air while yelling "Yee-Ha!" before setting it off.

@Dave and yogi: not only Vincent....I want something, ANYTHING on Rose and Bernard. Where and when are they? And let's not forget Claire -- could she be back?
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In fact, that brings me to another possible ending -- take yogi's Jack-and-Locke about to act prediction from above, but right as they're about to nuke the island/shoot Jacob, Rose (in 1977) and Bernard (in 2007) appear, telling them this is not the path. "What is the path?" both John and Jack ask.
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"This is. We need to sacrifice ourselves so that all of you can reunite." replies Rose/Bernard. And they clap their hand/or do something.
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Island starts to shake in both time periods, Rose/Bernard disappear, sky turns purple, and....
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Boom, we see Rose and Bernard, back in ancient times with the statue. They each pick up a black rock and a white rock. Rose turns to Bernard: "Do you think it worked?"
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Boom. LOST title card.

@Yeah Chaddogg, Vincent, Rose and Bernard seem like minor enough characters that I could see them just forgotten about (hopefully not). IIRC, the producers have the actress who plays Claire signed through next season, so there is hope for her.

Sorry, Chaddog, Rose and Bernard are off-Island in 2007. After they stopped time jumping in 1977, they are captured by the Hostiles and join them, 'cause what else are they going to do?. Then they go into exile (I'm assuming that's what she does) with Hawking and work with her at manipulating Desmond. But due to their interactions with Richard, they caught his unaging-itis, so the actors can stay the same.

If they don't bring back Rose and Bernard tonight, I'm confident they'll bring them back for the season opener next year. Not only are they important to the story (Rose was arguably even more healed than Locke was), they're huge fan favorites, and they'd never, ever, ever just kill off a huge fan favorite (sit down, all you Charlie fans!).
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You know what's kind of funny? After all of this, we still don't have any idea why exactly people want to fight over the Island. I mean, yeah, it has special properties, but is there some way of controlling it? Is that why everyone is fighting over the Island? Widmore's getting up there in years, but he's still working as hard as ever to get back (but strangely, it seems as though Eloise isn't). Or was all of Widmore's "attempt" to get back just a means of getting Daniel and Co. to the Island?